Discounted Cash Flow

Baidu, Inc. ADR

BIDU · Based on 10 years of SEC filings · Converted from CNY to USD

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income
Dividends

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $10.2b $248.7m $248.7m 2.4%
2017 $13.0b (28.3%) $417.5m (67.8%) $417.5m (67.8%) 3.2% (30.8%)
2018 $14.9b (14.1%) $595.4m (42.6%) $5.2b (1133.7%) 4.0% (24.9%)
2019 $15.4b (3.7%) $43.9m (-92.6%) $43.9m (-99.1%) 0.3% (-92.9%)
2020 $16.4b (6.4%) $511.3m (1063.5%) $3.5b (7812.5%) 3.1% (994.0%)
2021 $19.5b (19.0%) $238.3m (-53.4%) $238.3m (-93.1%) 1.2% (-60.9%)
2022 $123.7b (533.1%) $162.7m (-31.7%) $3.7b (1455.7%) 0.1% (-89.2%)
2023 $134.6b (8.8%) $424.8m (161.0%) $424.8m (-88.5%) 0.3% (139.9%)
2024 $133.1b (-1.1%) $483.3m (13.8%) $3.0b (603.3%) 0.4% (15.0%)
2025 $18.5b (-86.1%) $118.6m (-75.5%) $-703.6m (-123.6%) 0.6% (77.0%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model