Discounted Cash Flow

Booking Holdings Inc.

BKNG · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $10.7b $2.1b $3.7b 19.9% $43.14
2017 $12.7b (18.0%) $2.3b (9.6%) $4.4b (18.1%) 18.5% (-7.1%) $47.78 (10.8%)
2018 $14.5b (14.6%) $4.0b (70.8%) $4.9b (11.9%) 27.5% (49.1%) $84.26 (76.3%)
2019 $15.1b (3.7%) $4.9b (21.7%) $4.2b (-14.4%) 32.3% (17.3%) $112.93 (34.0%)
2020 $6.8b (-54.9%) $59.0m (-98.8%) $11.0m (-99.7%) 0.9% (-97.3%) $1.45 (-98.7%)
2021 $11.0b (61.2%) $1.2b (1874.6%) $2.8b (25381.8%) 10.6% (1124.6%) $28.39 (1857.9%)
2022 $17.1b (56.0%) $3.1b (162.5%) $5.8b (106.4%) 17.9% (68.3%) $76.70 (170.2%)
2023 $21.4b (25.0%) $4.3b (40.3%) $7.3b (26.7%) 20.1% (12.2%) $118.67 (54.7%)
2024 $23.7b (11.1%) $5.9b (37.1%) $8.3b (13.1%) 24.8% (23.4%) $174.96 (47.4%)
2025 $26.9b (13.4%) $5.4b (-8.1%) $9.4b (13.5%) 20.1% (-19.0%) $166.52 (-4.8%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model