Discounted Cash Flow
Blue Bird Corp.
—
—
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $932.0m | $6.9m | $25.1m | 0.7% | $0.14 |
| 2017 | $990.6m (6.3%) | $28.8m (317.4%) | $47.6m (89.8%) | 2.9% (292.7%) | $0.79 (464.3%) |
| 2018 | $1.0b (3.5%) | $30.8m (7.0%) | $48.4m (1.5%) | 3.0% (3.4%) | $1.15 (45.6%) |
| 2019 | $1.0b (-0.6%) | $24.3m (-21.2%) | $55.7m (15.2%) | 2.4% (-20.7%) | $0.92 (-20.0%) |
| 2020 | $879.2m (-13.7%) | $12.2m (-49.9%) | $3.5m (-93.8%) | 1.4% (-41.9%) | $0.45 (-51.1%) |
| 2021 | $684.0m (-22.2%) | $-289.0k (-102.4%) | $-54.2m (-1668.1%) | -0.0% (-103.0%) | $-0.01 (-102.2%) |
| 2022 | $800.6m (17.1%) | $-45.8m (-15733.6%) | $-30.9m (43.1%) | -5.7% (-13426.8%) | $-1.48 (-14700.0%) |
| 2023 | $1.1b (41.5%) | $23.8m (152.0%) | $111.4m (460.7%) | 2.1% (136.8%) | $0.74 (150.0%) |
| 2024 | $1.3b (18.9%) | $105.5m (343.3%) | $95.8m (-14.0%) | 7.8% (272.7%) | $3.27 (341.9%) |
| 2025 | $1.5b (9.9%) | $127.7m (21.0%) | $153.3m (60.0%) | 8.6% (10.1%) | $4.01 (22.6%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.