Discounted Cash Flow

Blue Bird Corp.

BLBD · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $932.0m $6.9m $25.1m 0.7% $0.14
2017 $990.6m (6.3%) $28.8m (317.4%) $47.6m (89.8%) 2.9% (292.7%) $0.79 (464.3%)
2018 $1.0b (3.5%) $30.8m (7.0%) $48.4m (1.5%) 3.0% (3.4%) $1.15 (45.6%)
2019 $1.0b (-0.6%) $24.3m (-21.2%) $55.7m (15.2%) 2.4% (-20.7%) $0.92 (-20.0%)
2020 $879.2m (-13.7%) $12.2m (-49.9%) $3.5m (-93.8%) 1.4% (-41.9%) $0.45 (-51.1%)
2021 $684.0m (-22.2%) $-289.0k (-102.4%) $-54.2m (-1668.1%) -0.0% (-103.0%) $-0.01 (-102.2%)
2022 $800.6m (17.1%) $-45.8m (-15733.6%) $-30.9m (43.1%) -5.7% (-13426.8%) $-1.48 (-14700.0%)
2023 $1.1b (41.5%) $23.8m (152.0%) $111.4m (460.7%) 2.1% (136.8%) $0.74 (150.0%)
2024 $1.3b (18.9%) $105.5m (343.3%) $95.8m (-14.0%) 7.8% (272.7%) $3.27 (341.9%)
2025 $1.5b (9.9%) $127.7m (21.0%) $153.3m (60.0%) 8.6% (10.1%) $4.01 (22.6%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model