Discounted Cash Flow

BP Plc. ADR

BP · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $186.6b $115.0m $-6.0b 0.1% $0.05
2017 $244.6b (31.1%) $3.4b (2847.0%) $2.4b (139.4%) 1.4% (2148.4%) $1.20 (2507.4%)
2018 $303.7b (24.2%) $9.4b (176.9%) $6.2b (160.3%) 3.1% (122.9%) $3.29 (173.7%)
2019 $282.6b (-7.0%) $4.0b (-57.1%) $10.4b (67.9%) 1.4% (-53.9%) $1.39 (-57.8%)
2020 $183.5b (-35.1%) $-20.3b (-604.3%) $-144.0m (-101.4%) -11.1% (-876.8%) $-7.03 (-606.6%)
2021 $164.2b (-10.5%) $7.6b (137.3%) $12.7b (8936.8%) 4.6% (141.6%) $2.63 (137.3%)
2022 $248.9b (51.6%) $-2.5b (-132.9%) $28.9b (126.8%) -1.0% (-121.7%) $-0.92 (-135.1%)
2023 $213.0b (-14.4%) $15.2b (712.7%) $17.8b (-38.5%) 7.2% (815.9%) $6.15 (767.5%)
2024 $194.6b (-8.6%) $381.0m (-97.5%) $12.0b (-32.4%) 0.2% (-97.3%) $0.16 (-97.3%)
2025 $192.5b (-1.1%) $55.0m (-85.6%) $11.3b (-6.1%) 0.0% (-85.4%) $0.02 (-85.7%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model