Discounted Cash Flow

Black Stone Minerals, L.P. LP

BSM · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $260.8m $20.2m $196.7m 7.7%
2017 $429.7m (64.7%) $157.2m (678.4%) $281.9m (43.3%) 36.6% (372.6%)
2018 $594.7m (38.4%) $295.6m (88.1%) $385.4m (36.7%) 49.7% (35.9%)
2019 $492.8m (-17.1%) $214.4m (-27.5%) $412.7m (7.1%) 43.5% (-12.5%)
2020 $296.6m (-39.8%) $121.8m (-43.2%) $281.8m (-31.7%) 41.1% (-5.6%)
2021 $505.7m (70.5%) $182.0m (49.4%) $256.9m (-8.8%) 36.0% (-12.4%)
2022 $784.3m (55.1%) $476.5m (161.8%) $412.4m (60.5%) 60.8% (68.8%)
2023 $501.1m (-36.1%) $422.5m (-11.3%) $501.4m (21.6%) 84.3% (38.8%)
2024 $439.4m (-12.3%) $271.3m (-35.8%) $274.0m (-45.4%) 61.7% (-26.8%)
2025 $422.3m (-3.9%) $270.5m (-0.3%) $191.1m (-30.3%) 64.0% (3.7%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model