Discounted Cash Flow

Sierra Bancorp

BSRR · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $17.6m $13.9m $1.30
2017 $19.5m (11.2%) $39.2m (181.1%) $1.38 (6.2%)
2018 $29.7m (51.9%) $27.3m (-30.3%) $1.94 (40.6%)
2019 $36.0m (21.2%) $46.0m (68.2%) $2.35 (21.1%)
2020 $35.4m (-1.4%) $37.1m (-19.2%) $2.33 (-0.9%)
2021 $43.0m (21.4%) $52.3m (40.9%) $2.82 (21.0%)
2022 $33.7m (-21.7%) $32.3m (-38.2%) $2.25 (-20.2%)
2023 $34.8m (3.5%) $51.8m (60.5%) $2.37 (5.3%)
2024 $40.6m (16.4%) $56.0m (8.0%) $2.84 (19.8%)
2025 $42.3m (4.4%) $32.2m (-42.5%) $3.14 (10.6%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model