Discounted Cash Flow

Burlington Stores, Inc.

BURL · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $5.1b $150.5m 2.9% $2.03
2017 $5.6b (9.0%) $215.9m (43.5%) $414.9m 3.9% (31.6%) $3.06 (50.7%)
2018 $6.1b (8.8%) $384.9m (78.3%) $339.1m (-18.3%) 6.3% (63.8%) $5.64 (84.3%)
2019 $6.6b (9.2%) $414.7m (7.8%) $343.9m (1.4%) 6.2% (-1.3%) $6.21 (10.1%)
2020 $7.3b (9.3%) $465.1m (12.1%) $563.4m (63.8%) 6.4% (2.6%) $7.05 (13.5%)
2021 $5.8b (-20.8%) $-216.5m (-146.5%) $-54.1m (-109.6%) -3.8% (-158.8%) $-3.28 (-146.5%)
2022 $9.3b (61.8%) $408.8m (288.8%) $480.7m (988.5%) 4.4% (216.7%) $6.14 (287.2%)
2023 $8.7b (-6.7%) $230.1m (-43.7%) $149.0m (-69.0%) 2.6% (-39.7%) $3.51 (-42.8%)
2024 $9.7b (11.8%) $339.6m (47.6%) $376.1m (152.4%) 3.5% (32.0%) $5.25 (49.6%)
2025 $10.6b (9.3%) $503.6m (48.3%) $-17.0m (-104.5%) 4.7% (35.6%) $7.91 (50.7%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model