Discounted Cash Flow

BWX Technologies, Inc.

BWXT · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $1.6b $183.1m $187.2m 11.8% $1.79
2017 $1.7b (8.8%) $147.8m (-19.2%) $125.3m (-33.1%) 8.8% (-25.8%) $1.49 (-16.8%)
2018 $1.8b (6.6%) $227.0m (53.5%) $60.0m (-52.1%) 12.6% (43.9%) $2.29 (53.7%)
2019 $1.9b (5.3%) $244.1m (7.6%) $97.2m (62.2%) 12.9% (2.2%) $2.56 (11.8%)
2020 $2.1b (12.1%) $278.7m (14.2%) $-58.6m (-160.2%) 13.1% (1.9%) $2.92 (14.1%)
2021 $2.1b (0.0%) $305.9m (9.8%) $75.0m (228.0%) 14.4% (9.7%) $3.24 (11.0%)
2022 $2.2b (5.1%) $238.2m (-22.1%) $46.4m (-38.1%) 10.7% (-25.9%) $2.60 (-19.8%)
2023 $2.5b (11.8%) $245.8m (3.2%) $212.4m (357.9%) 9.8% (-7.7%) $2.68 (3.1%)
2024 $2.7b (8.3%) $281.9m (14.7%) $254.8m (19.9%) 10.4% (5.9%) $3.08 (14.9%)
2025 $3.2b (18.3%) $328.9m (16.7%) $295.3m (15.9%) 10.3% (-1.4%) $3.59 (16.6%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model