Discounted Cash Flow

Caterpillar Inc.

CAT · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $35.8b $-67.0m $4.7b -0.2% $-0.11
2017 $42.7b (19.3%) $754.0m (1225.4%) $4.5b (-3.6%) 1.8% (1043.3%) $1.27 (1254.5%)
2018 $54.7b (28.2%) $6.1b (715.3%) $5.6b (23.9%) 11.2% (535.8%) $10.39 (718.1%)
2019 $53.8b (-1.7%) $6.1b (-0.9%) $5.8b (2.4%) 11.3% (0.8%) $10.85 (4.4%)
2020 $41.7b (-22.4%) $3.0b (-50.8%) $5.3b (-7.1%) 7.2% (-36.6%) $5.51 (-49.2%)
2021 $51.0b (22.1%) $6.5b (116.4%) $6.1b (14.1%) 12.7% (77.3%) $11.93 (116.5%)
2022 $59.4b (16.6%) $6.7b (3.3%) $6.5b (6.0%) 11.3% (-11.4%) $12.72 (6.6%)
2023 $67.1b (12.8%) $10.3b (54.1%) $11.3b (74.5%) 15.4% (36.6%) $20.24 (59.1%)
2024 $64.8b (-3.4%) $10.8b (4.4%) $10.0b (-11.0%) 16.7% (8.0%) $22.17 (9.5%)
2025 $67.6b (4.3%) $8.9b (-17.7%) $8.9b (-11.2%) 13.1% (-21.1%) $18.90 (-14.7%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model