Discounted Cash Flow

Chubb Ltd.

CB · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $31.5b $4.1b $5.3b 13.1% $8.94
2017 $32.2b (2.5%) $3.9b (-6.6%) $4.5b (-14.9%) 12.0% (-8.9%) $8.26 (-7.6%)
2018 $32.7b (1.5%) $4.0b (2.6%) $5.5b (21.7%) 12.1% (1.1%) $8.55 (3.5%)
2019 $34.2b (4.5%) $4.5b (12.4%) $6.3b (15.7%) 13.0% (7.6%) $9.77 (14.3%)
2020 $36.0b (5.3%) $3.5b (-20.7%) $9.8b (54.3%) 9.8% (-24.7%) $7.82 (-20.0%)
2021 $41.0b (13.8%) $8.5b (141.7%) $11.1b (13.9%) 20.8% (112.4%) $19.41 (148.2%)
2022 $43.2b (5.4%) $5.3b (-37.8%) $11.3b (1.0%) 12.3% (-41.0%) $12.66 (-34.8%)
2023 $49.7b (15.2%) $9.0b (69.9%) $12.6b (12.2%) 18.2% (47.5%) $21.97 (73.5%)
2024 $55.8b (12.1%) $9.3b (2.7%) $16.2b (28.1%) 16.6% (-8.4%) $22.94 (4.4%)
2025 $59.4b (6.5%) $10.3b (11.2%) $12.8b (-20.8%) 17.4% (4.4%) $25.93 (13.0%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model