Discounted Cash Flow

CF Industries Holdings, Inc.

CF · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $3.7b $-277.0m $-1.6b -7.5%
2017 $4.1b (12.1%) $358.0m (229.2%) $1.2b (172.6%) 8.7% (215.3%)
2018 $4.4b (7.2%) $290.0m (-19.0%) $1.1b (-7.2%) 6.5% (-24.5%)
2019 $4.6b (3.6%) $493.0m (70.0%) $1.1b (2.4%) 10.7% (64.0%)
2020 $4.1b (-10.2%) $317.0m (-35.7%) $922.0m (-16.3%) 7.7% (-28.4%)
2021 $6.5b (58.5%) $917.0m (189.3%) $2.4b (155.9%) 14.0% (82.5%)
2022 $11.2b (71.1%) $3.3b (264.9%) $3.4b (44.2%) 29.9% (113.3%)
2023 $6.6b (-40.7%) $1.5b (-54.4%) $2.3b (-33.6%) 23.0% (-23.1%)
2024 $5.9b (-10.5%) $1.2b (-20.1%) $1.8b (-22.4%) 20.5% (-10.8%)
2025 $7.1b (19.3%) $1.5b (19.5%) $1.8b (2.8%) 20.5% (0.1%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model