Discounted Cash Flow
Churchill Downs Inc.
—
—
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | — | $108.1m | $195.9m | — | $6.52 |
| 2017 | — | $140.5m (30.0%) | $184.9m (-5.6%) | — | $8.91 (36.7%) |
| 2018 | $1.0b | $352.8m (151.1%) | $168.2m (-9.0%) | 35.0% | $8.54 (-4.2%) |
| 2019 | $1.3b (31.8%) | $137.5m (-61.0%) | $289.6m (72.2%) | 10.3% (-70.4%) | $3.43 (-59.8%) |
| 2020 | $1.1b (-20.7%) | $-81.9m (-159.6%) | $141.9m (-51.0%) | -7.8% (-175.1%) | $-2.07 (-160.3%) |
| 2021 | $1.6b (51.5%) | $249.1m (404.2%) | $459.5m (223.8%) | 15.6% (300.7%) | $6.45 (411.6%) |
| 2022 | $1.8b (13.3%) | $439.4m (76.4%) | $54.0m (-88.2%) | 24.3% (55.7%) | $11.58 (79.5%) |
| 2023 | $2.5b (36.0%) | $417.3m (-5.0%) | $-71.2m (-231.9%) | 17.0% (-30.2%) | $5.55 (-52.1%) |
| 2024 | $2.7b (11.1%) | $426.8m (2.3%) | $224.7m (415.6%) | 15.6% (-7.9%) | $5.73 (3.2%) |
| 2025 | $2.9b (7.0%) | $383.0m (-10.3%) | $309.6m (37.8%) | 13.1% (-16.1%) | $5.32 (-7.2%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.