Discounted Cash Flow

Choice Hotels International Inc. /de

CHH · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $924.6m $139.4m $126.8m 15.1% $2.48
2017 $1.0b (8.9%) $114.9m (-17.6%) $233.9m (84.4%) 11.4% (-24.3%)
2018 $1.0b (3.4%) $216.4m (88.3%) $195.2m (-16.5%) 20.8% (82.2%)
2019 $1.1b (7.2%) $222.9m (3.0%) $213.2m (9.2%) 20.0% (-3.9%)
2020 $775.5m (-30.5%) $75.4m (-66.2%) $110.1m (-48.4%) 9.7% (-51.3%)
2021 $1.1b (37.8%) $289.0m (283.3%) $383.7m (248.6%) 27.0% (178.1%) $5.20
2022 $1.4b (31.1%) $332.2m (14.9%) $277.1m (-27.8%) 23.7% (-12.3%) $6.05 (16.3%)
2023 $1.5b (10.2%) $258.5m (-22.2%) $180.3m (-34.9%) 16.7% (-29.4%) $5.11 (-15.5%)
2024 $1.6b (2.6%) $299.7m (15.9%) $173.6m (-3.7%) 18.9% (12.9%) $6.26 (22.5%)
2025 $1.6b (0.8%) $369.9m (23.5%) $124.7m (-28.2%) 23.2% (22.5%) $7.97 (27.3%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model