Discounted Cash Flow

Citizens, Inc.

CIA · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $245.4m $2.0m $100.1m 0.8%
2017 $252.6m (2.9%) $-38.1m (-2036.4%) $91.7m (-8.4%) -15.1% (-1981.0%)
2018 $244.0m (-3.4%) $-11.1m (71.0%) $83.9m (-8.5%) -4.5% (70.0%)
2019 $250.5m (2.7%) $-1.4m (87.6%) $71.7m (-14.5%) -0.5% (87.9%)
2020 $238.9m (-4.7%) $-11.0m (-702.0%) $48.6m (-32.2%) -4.6% (-741.3%)
2021 $250.5m (4.9%) $36.8m (434.8%) $39.4m (-18.9%) 14.7% (419.2%)
2022 $232.5m (-7.2%) $-6.6m (-118.0%) $56.8m (44.0%) -2.9% (-119.4%)
2023 $240.7m (3.5%) $24.4m (468.1%) $21.6m (-62.0%) 10.2% (455.7%)
2024 $245.0m (1.8%) $14.9m (-39.0%) $31.3m (44.6%) 6.1% (-40.1%)
2025 $255.6m (4.3%) $14.6m (-2.2%) $17.5m (-43.9%) 5.7% (-6.2%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model