Discounted Cash Flow

Ciena Corp.

CIEN · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $2.6b $72.6m $182.3m 2.8% $0.52
2017 $2.8b (7.7%) $1.3b (1638.6%) $140.3m (-23.1%) 45.0% (1513.8%) $8.89 (1609.6%)
2018 $3.1b (10.4%) $-344.7m (-127.3%) $161.6m (15.2%) -11.1% (-124.7%) $-2.40 (-127.0%)
2019 $3.6b (15.4%) $253.4m (173.5%) $350.6m (116.9%) 7.1% (163.7%) $1.63 (167.9%)
2020 $3.5b (-1.1%) $361.3m (42.6%) $411.0m (17.2%) 10.2% (44.2%) $2.34 (43.6%)
2021 $3.6b (2.5%) $500.2m (38.4%) $462.1m (12.4%) 13.8% (35.1%) $3.22 (37.6%)
2022 $3.6b (0.3%) $152.9m (-69.4%) $-258.6m (-156.0%) 4.2% (-69.5%) $1.01 (-68.6%)
2023 $4.4b (20.8%) $254.8m (66.7%) $62.1m (124.0%) 5.8% (38.0%) $1.71 (69.3%)
2024 $4.0b (-8.5%) $84.0m (-67.1%) $377.9m (508.2%) 2.1% (-64.0%) $0.58 (-66.1%)
2025 $4.8b (18.8%) $123.3m (46.9%) $665.3m (76.1%) 2.6% (23.7%) $0.87 (50.0%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model