Discounted Cash Flow

Cincinnati Financial Corp.

CINF · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $5.4b $591.0m $1.1b 10.8% $3.59
2017 $5.7b (5.2%) $1.0b (76.8%) $1.0b (-5.0%) 18.2% (68.1%) $6.36 (77.2%)
2018 $5.4b (-5.7%) $287.0m (-72.5%) $1.2b (12.1%) 5.3% (-70.9%) $1.76 (-72.3%)
2019 $7.9b (46.6%) $2.0b (595.8%) $1.2b (2.0%) 25.2% (374.8%) $12.24 (595.5%)
2020 $7.5b (-4.9%) $1.2b (-39.1%) $1.5b (24.2%) 16.1% (-36.0%) $7.55 (-38.3%)
2021 $9.6b (27.8%) $2.9b (142.3%) $2.0b (33.7%) 30.6% (89.6%) $18.29 (142.3%)
2022 $6.6b (-31.9%) $-486.0m (-116.5%) $2.0b (3.6%) -7.4% (-124.2%) $-3.06 (-116.7%)
2023 $10.0b (52.7%) $1.8b (479.2%) $2.0b (-0.1%) 18.4% (348.3%) $11.74 (483.7%)
2024 $11.3b (13.2%) $2.3b (24.4%) $2.6b (29.2%) 20.2% (9.8%) $14.65 (24.8%)
2025 $12.6b (11.4%) $2.4b (4.4%) $3.1b (17.7%) 18.9% (-6.3%) $15.32 (4.6%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model