Discounted Cash Flow
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.
—
—
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $3.9b | $22.9m | $90.4m | 0.6% | $0.78 |
| 2017 | $4.5b (14.7%) | $176.3m (668.4%) | $250.3m (176.9%) | 3.9% (570.2%) | $6.19 (693.6%) |
| 2018 | $4.9b (8.7%) | $176.6m (0.2%) | $334.2m (33.5%) | 3.6% (-7.8%) | $6.35 (2.6%) |
| 2019 | $5.6b (14.8%) | $350.2m (98.3%) | $387.7m (16.0%) | 6.3% (72.7%) | $12.62 (98.7%) |
| 2020 | $6.0b (7.1%) | $355.8m (1.6%) | $290.5m (-25.1%) | 5.9% (-5.2%) | $12.74 (1.0%) |
| 2021 | $7.5b (26.1%) | $653.0m (83.5%) | $839.6m (189.0%) | 8.7% (45.5%) | $23.21 (82.2%) |
| 2022 | $8.6b (14.4%) | $899.1m (37.7%) | $844.0m (0.5%) | 10.4% (20.3%) | $32.28 (39.1%) |
| 2023 | $9.9b (14.3%) | $1.2b (36.7%) | $1.2b (44.9%) | 12.4% (19.5%) | $44.59 (38.1%) |
| 2024 | $11.3b (14.6%) | $1.5b (24.9%) | $1.5b (23.6%) | 13.6% (8.9%) | $1.12 (-97.5%) |
| 2025 | $11.9b (5.4%) | $1.5b (0.1%) | $1.4b (-4.2%) | 12.9% (-5.0%) | $1.15 (2.7%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.