Discounted Cash Flow

Cummins Inc.

CMI · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $17.5b $1.4b $1.4b 8.0% $8.25
2017 $20.4b (16.7%) $999.0m (-28.3%) $1.8b (26.1%) 4.9% (-38.6%) $5.99 (-27.4%)
2018 $23.8b (16.4%) $2.1b (114.3%) $1.7b (-5.8%) 9.0% (84.2%) $13.20 (120.4%)
2019 $23.6b (-0.8%) $2.3b (5.6%) $2.5b (48.7%) 9.6% (6.5%) $14.54 (10.2%)
2020 $19.8b (-16.0%) $1.8b (-20.8%) $2.2b (-11.6%) 9.0% (-5.8%) $12.07 (-17.0%)
2021 $24.0b (21.3%) $2.1b (19.1%) $1.5b (-30.6%) 8.9% (-1.8%) $14.74 (22.1%)
2022 $28.1b (16.9%) $2.2b (0.9%) $1.0b (-31.3%) 7.7% (-13.6%) $15.20 (3.1%)
2023 $34.1b (21.3%) $735.0m (-65.8%) $2.8b (163.2%) 2.2% (-71.8%) $5.19 (-65.9%)
2024 $34.1b (0.1%) $3.9b (436.9%) $279.0m (-89.9%) 11.6% (436.3%) $28.55 (450.1%)
2025 $33.7b (-1.3%) $2.8b (-28.0%) $2.4b (755.2%) 8.4% (-27.0%) $20.62 (-27.8%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model