Discounted Cash Flow

Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. Foreign

CNQ · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $10.5b $-23.0m $3.4b -0.2% $-0.19
2017 $16.7b (58.2%) $-30.0m (-30.2%) $7.3b (110.5%) -0.2% (17.7%) $2.04 (1173.7%)
2018 $21.0b (26.3%) $-6.2m (79.4%) $8.8b (21.8%) -0.0% (83.7%) $2.13 (4.4%)
2019 $22.9b (8.8%) $-43.0m (-596.9%) $7.9b (-10.8%) -0.2% (-540.7%) $4.55 (113.6%)
2020 $16.9b (-26.1%) $24.3m (156.5%) $4.4b (-43.7%) 0.1% (176.5%) $-0.37 (-108.1%)
2021 $30.1b (77.9%) $-48.2m (-297.9%) $12.9b (190.3%) -0.2% (-211.2%) $6.49 (1854.1%)
2022 $42.3b (40.7%) $-24.6m (48.9%) $13.8b (7.2%) -0.1% (63.7%) $9.64 (48.5%)
2023 $36.0b (-15.0%) $8.2b (33536.2%) $9.0b (-34.6%) 22.9% (39420.7%) $7.54 (-21.8%)
2024 $35.7b (-0.9%) $6.1b (-25.8%) $10.7b (18.7%) 17.1% (-25.2%) $2.87 (-61.9%)
2025 $38.8b (8.7%) $10.8b (77.2%) $13.7b (27.3%) 27.9% (63.0%) $5.17 (80.1%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model