Discounted Cash Flow
Conocophillips
—
—
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $23.7b | $-3.6b | $-466.0m | -15.3% | $-2.91 |
| 2017 | $29.1b (22.8%) | $-855.0m (76.3%) | $2.5b (633.5%) | -2.9% (80.7%) | $-0.70 (75.9%) |
| 2018 | $36.4b (25.1%) | $6.3b (831.8%) | $6.2b (148.8%) | 17.2% (684.9%) | $5.36 (865.7%) |
| 2019 | $32.6b (-10.6%) | $7.2b (14.9%) | $4.5b (-27.7%) | 22.1% (28.5%) | $6.43 (20.0%) |
| 2020 | $18.8b (-42.3%) | $-2.7b (-137.6%) | $87.0m (-98.1%) | -14.4% (-165.1%) | $-2.51 (-139.0%) |
| 2021 | $45.8b (144.0%) | $8.1b (399.1%) | $11.7b (13316.1%) | 17.6% (222.6%) | $6.09 (342.6%) |
| 2022 | $61.0b (33.2%) | $18.7b (131.2%) | $18.2b (55.5%) | 30.6% (73.6%) | $14.62 (140.1%) |
| 2023 | $56.7b (-7.1%) | $11.0b (-41.3%) | $8.7b (-52.0%) | 19.3% (-36.9%) | $9.08 (-37.9%) |
| 2024 | $54.9b (-3.2%) | $9.2b (-15.6%) | $8.0b (-8.2%) | 16.8% (-12.8%) | $7.82 (-13.9%) |
| 2025 | $59.0b (7.5%) | $8.0b (-13.6%) | $7.2b (-9.5%) | 13.5% (-19.6%) | $6.36 (-18.7%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.