Discounted Cash Flow

Conocophillips

COP · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $23.7b $-3.6b $-466.0m -15.3% $-2.91
2017 $29.1b (22.8%) $-855.0m (76.3%) $2.5b (633.5%) -2.9% (80.7%) $-0.70 (75.9%)
2018 $36.4b (25.1%) $6.3b (831.8%) $6.2b (148.8%) 17.2% (684.9%) $5.36 (865.7%)
2019 $32.6b (-10.6%) $7.2b (14.9%) $4.5b (-27.7%) 22.1% (28.5%) $6.43 (20.0%)
2020 $18.8b (-42.3%) $-2.7b (-137.6%) $87.0m (-98.1%) -14.4% (-165.1%) $-2.51 (-139.0%)
2021 $45.8b (144.0%) $8.1b (399.1%) $11.7b (13316.1%) 17.6% (222.6%) $6.09 (342.6%)
2022 $61.0b (33.2%) $18.7b (131.2%) $18.2b (55.5%) 30.6% (73.6%) $14.62 (140.1%)
2023 $56.7b (-7.1%) $11.0b (-41.3%) $8.7b (-52.0%) 19.3% (-36.9%) $9.08 (-37.9%)
2024 $54.9b (-3.2%) $9.2b (-15.6%) $8.0b (-8.2%) 16.8% (-12.8%) $7.82 (-13.9%)
2025 $59.0b (7.5%) $8.0b (-13.6%) $7.2b (-9.5%) 13.5% (-19.6%) $6.36 (-18.7%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model