Discounted Cash Flow

Costco Wholesale Corp. /New

COST · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $116.1b $2.4b $643.0m 2.0% $5.36
2017 $126.2b (8.7%) $2.7b (14.0%) $4.2b (556.9%) 2.1% (4.9%) $6.11 (14.0%)
2018 $141.6b (12.2%) $3.1b (17.0%) $2.8b (-33.6%) 2.2% (4.3%) $7.15 (17.0%)
2019 $152.7b (7.9%) $3.7b (16.8%) $3.4b (19.7%) 2.4% (8.2%) $8.32 (16.4%)
2020 $166.8b (9.2%) $4.0b (9.4%) $6.1b (80.2%) 2.4% (0.2%) $9.05 (8.8%)
2021 $195.9b (17.5%) $5.0b (25.1%) $5.4b (-11.3%) 2.6% (6.5%) $11.30 (24.9%)
2022 $227.0b (15.8%) $5.8b (16.7%) $3.5b (-34.8%) 2.6% (0.8%) $13.17 (16.5%)
2023 $242.3b (6.8%) $6.3b (7.7%) $6.7b (92.7%) 2.6% (0.9%) $14.18 (7.7%)
2024 $254.5b (5.0%) $7.4b (17.1%) $6.6b (-1.7%) 2.9% (11.5%) $16.59 (17.0%)
2025 $275.2b (8.2%) $8.1b (9.9%) $7.8b (18.2%) 2.9% (1.6%) $18.24 (9.9%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model