Discounted Cash Flow

Cisco Systems, Inc.

CSCO · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $49.2b $10.7b $13.5b 21.8% $2.13
2017 $48.0b (-2.5%) $9.6b (-10.5%) $13.9b (2.5%) 20.0% (-8.2%) $1.92 (-9.9%)
2018 $49.3b (2.8%) $110.0m (-98.9%) $13.6b (-1.9%) 0.2% (-98.9%) $0.02 (-99.0%)
2019 $51.9b (5.2%) $11.6b (10464.5%) $15.8b (16.2%) 22.4% (9940.6%) $2.63 (13050.0%)
2020 $49.3b (-5.0%) $11.2b (-3.5%) $15.2b (-3.6%) 22.7% (1.6%) $2.65 (0.8%)
2021 $49.8b (1.0%) $10.6b (-5.6%) $15.4b (1.2%) 21.3% (-6.5%) $2.51 (-5.3%)
2022 $51.6b (3.5%) $11.8b (11.5%) $13.1b (-14.9%) 22.9% (7.8%) $2.83 (12.7%)
2023 $57.0b (10.6%) $12.6b (6.8%) $19.9b (51.4%) 22.1% (-3.4%) $3.08 (8.8%)
2024 $53.8b (-5.6%) $10.3b (-18.2%) $10.2b (-48.6%) 19.2% (-13.3%) $2.55 (-17.2%)
2025 $56.7b (5.3%) $10.2b (-1.4%) $13.3b (30.1%) 18.0% (-6.3%) $2.56 (0.4%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model