Discounted Cash Flow

CSX Corp.

CSX · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $11.1b $1.7b $643.0m 15.5% $0.60
2017 $11.4b (3.1%) $5.5b (219.2%) $1.4b (122.7%) 48.0% (209.7%) $2.00 (232.0%)
2018 $12.2b (7.4%) $3.3b (-39.5%) $2.9b (102.2%) 27.0% (-43.7%) $1.29 (-35.8%)
2019 $11.9b (-2.6%) $3.3b (0.7%) $3.2b (10.3%) 27.9% (3.3%) $1.39 (8.3%)
2020 $10.6b (-11.3%) $2.8b (-17.0%) $2.6b (-17.4%) 26.1% (-6.4%) $1.20 (-13.6%)
2021 $12.5b (18.3%) $3.8b (36.7%) $3.3b (25.4%) 30.2% (15.6%) $1.68 (39.6%)
2022 $14.9b (18.6%) $4.2b (10.2%) $3.5b (5.4%) 28.0% (-7.1%) $1.95 (16.1%)
2023 $14.7b (-1.3%) $3.7b (-10.8%) $3.3b (-6.3%) 25.3% (-9.6%) $1.85 (-5.1%)
2024 $14.5b (-0.8%) $3.5b (-6.6%) $2.7b (-16.8%) 23.9% (-5.8%) $1.79 (-3.2%)
2025 $14.1b (-3.1%) $2.9b (-16.7%) $1.7b (-37.0%) 20.5% (-14.1%) $1.54 (-14.0%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model