Discounted Cash Flow

Cavco Industries, Inc.

CVCO · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2017 $773.8m $38.0m $39.5m 4.9% $4.23
2018 $871.2m (12.6%) $61.5m (62.0%) $50.4m (27.6%) 7.1% (43.9%) $6.82 (61.2%)
2019 $962.7m (10.5%) $68.6m (11.6%) $25.2m (-50.0%) 7.1% (1.0%) $7.56 (10.9%)
2020 $1.1b (10.3%) $75.1m (9.4%) $87.4m (246.8%) 7.1% (-0.8%) $8.22 (8.7%)
2021 $1.1b (4.4%) $76.6m (2.1%) $88.5m (1.3%) 6.9% (-2.2%) $8.34 (1.5%)
2022 $1.6b (46.8%) $197.7m (157.9%) $125.6m (41.9%) 12.1% (75.6%) $21.54 (158.3%)
2023 $2.1b (31.7%) $240.6m (21.7%) $211.6m (68.5%) 11.2% (-7.6%) $27.20 (26.3%)
2024 $1.8b (-16.2%) $157.8m (-34.4%) $207.3m (-2.0%) 8.8% (-21.7%) $18.55 (-31.8%)
2025 $2.0b (12.3%) $171.0m (8.4%) $157.1m (-24.2%) 8.5% (-3.5%) $20.97 (13.0%)
2026 $2.2b (11.4%) $190.6m (11.4%) $232.1m (47.8%) 8.5% (0.0%) $24.26 (15.7%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model