Discounted Cash Flow

Cenovus Energy Inc. Foreign

CVE · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $11.0b $-545.0m $861.0m -5.0% $-0.65
2017 $17.0b (54.9%) $3.4b (717.6%) $3.1b (255.3%) 19.8% (498.8%) $3.05 (569.2%)
2018 $20.8b (22.3%) $-2.7b (-179.3%) $2.2b (-29.6%) -12.8% (-164.8%) $-2.17 (-171.1%)
2019 $20.2b (-3.2%) $2.2b (182.2%) $3.3b (52.5%) 10.9% (184.9%) $1.78 (182.0%)
2020 $13.2b (-34.5%) $-2.4b (-208.4%) $273.0m (-91.7%) -18.0% (-265.4%) $-1.94 (-209.0%)
2021 $46.4b (250.5%) $587.0m (124.7%) $5.7b (1971.1%) 1.3% (107.0%) $0.27 (113.9%)
2022 $66.9b (44.3%) $6.5b (998.8%) $7.6b (35.2%) 9.6% (661.4%) $3.29 (1118.5%)
2023 $52.2b (-22.0%) $4.1b (-36.3%) $3.1b (-59.6%) 7.9% (-18.4%) $2.15 (-34.7%)
2024 $54.3b (4.0%) $3.1b (-23.5%) $4.2b (36.6%) 5.8% (-26.5%) $1.68 (-21.9%)
2025 $49.7b (-8.4%) $3.9b (25.1%) $3.3b (-21.3%) 7.9% (36.6%) $2.16 (28.6%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model