Discounted Cash Flow

CVR Energy Inc.

CVI · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $4.8b $24.7m $267.5m 0.5% $0.28
2017 $6.0b (25.2%) $234.4m (849.0%) $166.9m (-37.6%) 3.9% (657.9%) $2.00 (614.3%)
2018 $7.1b (19.0%) $289.0m (23.3%) $620.0m (271.5%) 4.1% (3.6%) $2.50 (25.0%)
2019 $6.4b (-10.7%) $380.0m (31.5%) $747.0m (20.5%) 6.0% (47.2%) $3.78 (51.2%)
2020 $3.9b (-38.2%) $-256.0m (-167.4%) $90.0m (-88.0%) -6.5% (-209.1%) $-2.54 (-167.2%)
2021 $7.2b (84.3%) $25.0m (109.8%) $396.0m (340.0%) 0.3% (105.3%) $0.25 (109.8%)
2022 $10.9b (50.5%) $463.0m (1752.0%) $692.0m (74.7%) 4.2% (1130.9%) $4.60 (1740.0%)
2023 $9.2b (-15.1%) $769.0m (66.1%) $686.0m (-0.9%) 8.3% (95.7%) $7.65 (66.3%)
2024 $7.6b (-17.7%) $7.0m (-99.1%) $172.0m (-74.9%) 0.1% (-98.9%) $0.06 (-99.2%)
2025 $7.2b (-5.9%) $27.0m (285.7%) $-238.0m (-238.4%) 0.4% (309.8%) $0.27 (350.0%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model