Discounted Cash Flow

Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.

CVLG · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $670.7m $16.8m $-10.4m 2.5% $0.93
2017 $705.0m (5.1%) $55.4m (229.3%) $-27.9m (-169.7%) 7.9% (213.3%) $3.03 (225.8%)
2018 $885.5m (25.6%) $42.5m (-23.3%) $49.7m (277.7%) 4.8% (-39.0%) $2.32 (-23.4%)
2019 $894.5m (1.0%) $8.5m (-80.1%) $-74.2m (-249.5%) 0.9% (-80.3%) $0.46 (-80.2%)
2020 $838.6m (-6.3%) $-42.7m (-603.9%) $-31.0m (58.2%) -5.1% (-637.6%) $-2.46 (-634.8%)
2021 $1.0b (24.7%) $60.7m (242.2%) $37.9m (222.3%) 5.8% (214.0%) $3.61 (246.7%)
2022 $1.2b (16.3%) $108.7m (79.0%) $58.8m (54.9%) 8.9% (53.8%) $7.24 (100.6%)
2023 $1.1b (-9.3%) $55.2m (-49.2%) $-132.8m (-325.9%) 5.0% (-44.0%) $4.23 (-41.6%)
2024 $1.1b (2.5%) $35.9m (-35.0%) $-30.1m (77.4%) 3.2% (-36.6%) $1.37 (-67.6%)
2025 $1.2b (2.9%) $7.2m (-79.8%) $-33.9m (-12.8%) 0.6% (-80.4%) $0.28 (-79.6%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model