Discounted Cash Flow
Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.
—
—
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $670.7m | $16.8m | $-10.4m | 2.5% | $0.93 |
| 2017 | $705.0m (5.1%) | $55.4m (229.3%) | $-27.9m (-169.7%) | 7.9% (213.3%) | $3.03 (225.8%) |
| 2018 | $885.5m (25.6%) | $42.5m (-23.3%) | $49.7m (277.7%) | 4.8% (-39.0%) | $2.32 (-23.4%) |
| 2019 | $894.5m (1.0%) | $8.5m (-80.1%) | $-74.2m (-249.5%) | 0.9% (-80.3%) | $0.46 (-80.2%) |
| 2020 | $838.6m (-6.3%) | $-42.7m (-603.9%) | $-31.0m (58.2%) | -5.1% (-637.6%) | $-2.46 (-634.8%) |
| 2021 | $1.0b (24.7%) | $60.7m (242.2%) | $37.9m (222.3%) | 5.8% (214.0%) | $3.61 (246.7%) |
| 2022 | $1.2b (16.3%) | $108.7m (79.0%) | $58.8m (54.9%) | 8.9% (53.8%) | $7.24 (100.6%) |
| 2023 | $1.1b (-9.3%) | $55.2m (-49.2%) | $-132.8m (-325.9%) | 5.0% (-44.0%) | $4.23 (-41.6%) |
| 2024 | $1.1b (2.5%) | $35.9m (-35.0%) | $-30.1m (77.4%) | 3.2% (-36.6%) | $1.37 (-67.6%) |
| 2025 | $1.2b (2.9%) | $7.2m (-79.8%) | $-33.9m (-12.8%) | 0.6% (-80.4%) | $0.28 (-79.6%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.