Discounted Cash Flow

Carvana Co.

CVNA · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $365.1m $-93.1m $-279.8m -25.5% $-0.68
2017 $858.9m (135.2%) $-62.8m (32.5%) $-278.4m (0.5%) -7.3% (71.3%) $-1.31 (-92.6%)
2018 $2.0b (127.7%) $-61.8m (1.7%) $-558.0m (-100.4%) -3.2% (56.8%) $-2.24 (-71.0%)
2019 $3.9b (101.5%) $-114.7m (-85.7%) $-987.7m (-77.0%) -2.9% (7.8%) $-2.45 (-9.4%)
2020 $5.6b (41.8%) $-171.1m (-49.3%) $-968.2m (2.0%) -3.1% (-5.3%) $-2.63 (-7.3%)
2021 $12.8b (129.4%) $-135.0m (21.1%) $-135.0m (86.1%) -1.1% (65.6%) $-1.63 (38.0%)
2022 $13.6b (6.2%) $-1.6b (-1075.6%) $-1.8b (-1260.0%) -11.7% (-1007.3%) $-15.74 (-865.6%)
2023 $10.8b (-20.8%) $450.0m (128.4%) $716.0m (139.0%) 4.2% (135.8%) $4.12 (126.2%)
2024 $13.7b (26.9%) $210.0m (-53.3%) $827.0m (15.5%) 1.5% (-63.2%) $1.72 (-58.3%)
2025 $20.3b (48.6%) $1.4b (570.0%) $889.0m (7.5%) 6.9% (350.8%) $10.22 (494.2%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model