Discounted Cash Flow

Chevron Corp.

CVX · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $114.5b $-497.0m $-5.3b -0.4% $-0.27
2017 $141.7b (23.8%) $9.2b (1950.1%) $7.1b (235.1%) 6.5% (1594.4%) $4.88 (1907.4%)
2018 $158.9b (12.1%) $14.8b (61.2%) $16.8b (136.6%) 9.3% (43.8%) $7.81 (60.0%)
2019 $139.9b (-12.0%) $2.9b (-80.3%) $13.2b (-21.6%) 2.1% (-77.6%) $1.55 (-80.2%)
2020 $94.5b (-32.5%) $-5.5b (-289.6%) $1.7b (-87.5%) -5.9% (-380.7%) $-2.96 (-291.0%)
2021 $155.6b (64.7%) $15.6b (381.9%) $21.1b (1176.8%) 10.0% (271.1%) $8.15 (375.3%)
2022 $235.7b (51.5%) $35.5b (127.0%) $37.6b (78.1%) 15.0% (49.8%) $18.36 (125.3%)
2023 $196.9b (-16.5%) $21.4b (-39.7%) $19.8b (-47.4%) 10.9% (-27.9%) $11.41 (-37.9%)
2024 $193.4b (-1.8%) $17.7b (-17.4%) $15.0b (-23.9%) 9.1% (-15.9%) $9.76 (-14.5%)
2025 $184.4b (-4.6%) $12.3b (-30.4%) $16.6b (10.3%) 6.7% (-27.0%) $6.65 (-31.9%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model