Discounted Cash Flow

Casella Waste Systems Inc.

CWST · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $565.0m $-6.8m $26.2m -1.2% $-0.17
2017 $599.3m (6.1%) $-21.8m (-218.3%) $43.1m (64.5%) -3.6% (-200.1%) $-0.52 (-205.9%)
2018 $660.7m (10.2%) $6.4m (129.5%) $47.6m (10.3%) 1.0% (126.7%) $0.15 (128.8%)
2019 $743.3m (12.5%) $31.7m (393.0%) $13.7m (-71.3%) 4.3% (338.2%) $0.67 (346.7%)
2020 $774.6m (4.2%) $91.1m (187.8%) $31.8m (132.8%) 11.8% (176.2%) $1.87 (179.1%)
2021 $889.2m (14.8%) $41.1m (-54.9%) $59.4m (86.8%) 4.6% (-60.7%) $0.80 (-57.2%)
2022 $1.1b (22.0%) $53.1m (29.1%) $86.4m (45.3%) 4.9% (5.8%) $1.03 (28.7%)
2023 $1.3b (16.5%) $25.4m (-52.1%) $78.2m (-9.5%) 2.0% (-58.9%) $0.46 (-55.3%)
2024 $1.6b (23.1%) $13.5m (-46.7%) $78.1m (-0.1%) 0.9% (-56.7%) $0.23 (-50.0%)
2025 $1.8b (18.0%) $7.9m (-41.9%) $84.7m (8.4%) 0.4% (-50.7%) $0.12 (-47.8%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model