Discounted Cash Flow

China Yuchai International Ltd. Foreign

CYD · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $13.7b $515.7m $1.8b 3.8% $12.89
2017 $2.6b (-81.2%) $150.7m (-70.8%) $988.6m (-45.4%) 5.9% (55.8%) $3.70 (-71.3%)
2018 $2.4b (-5.2%) $103.9m (-31.0%) $250.3m (-74.7%) 4.3% (-27.3%) $2.54 (-31.4%)
2019 $2.5b (4.6%) $85.4m (-17.8%) $85.4m (-65.9%) 3.4% (-21.5%) $2.09 (-17.7%)
2020 $3.2b (25.1%) $84.8m (-0.7%) $84.8m (-0.7%) 2.7% (-20.6%) $2.08 (-0.5%)
2021 $3.4b (5.8%) $43.1m (-49.2%) $11.7m (-86.2%) 1.3% (-51.9%) $1.06 (-49.0%)
2022 $2.3b (-31.4%) $31.4m (-27.1%) $31.4m (168.0%) 1.4% (6.3%) $0.77 (-27.4%)
2023 $2.5b (10.2%) $40.2m (27.8%) $40.2m (27.8%) 1.6% (16.0%) $0.98 (27.3%)
2024 $2.7b (5.0%) $45.0m (12.0%) $316.8m (688.3%) 1.7% (6.7%) $1.14 (16.3%)
2025 $24.7b (824.7%) $111.1m (146.6%) $2.3b (619.9%) 0.5% (-73.3%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model