Discounted Cash Flow

Delta AIR Lines, Inc.

DAL · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $39.6b $4.4b $5.5b 11.0% $5.82
2017 $41.2b (4.0%) $3.6b (-18.2%) $4.2b (-23.2%) 8.7% (-21.4%) $4.97 (-14.6%)
2018 $44.4b (7.7%) $3.9b (10.0%) $6.9b (62.7%) 8.9% (2.1%) $5.69 (14.5%)
2019 $47.0b (5.8%) $4.8b (21.1%) $8.4b (22.7%) 10.1% (14.5%) $7.32 (28.6%)
2020 $17.1b (-63.6%) $-12.4b (-359.8%) $-3.8b (-145.0%) -72.4% (-814.4%) $-19.49 (-366.3%)
2021 $29.9b (74.9%) $280.0m (102.3%) $3.3b (186.1%) 0.9% (101.3%) $0.44 (102.3%)
2022 $50.6b (69.2%) $1.3b (370.7%) $-3.0m (-100.1%) 2.6% (178.2%) $2.07 (370.5%)
2023 $58.0b (14.8%) $4.6b (249.7%) $1.1b (38133.3%) 7.9% (204.7%) $7.21 (248.3%)
2024 $61.6b (6.2%) $3.5b (-25.0%) $2.9b (152.8%) 5.6% (-29.4%) $5.39 (-25.2%)
2025 $63.4b (2.8%) $5.0b (44.8%) $3.8b (33.2%) 7.9% (40.8%) $7.72 (43.2%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model