Discounted Cash Flow

Dropbox, Inc.

DBX · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2017 $1.1b $-111.7m $305.0m -10.1%
2018 $1.4b (25.7%) $-484.9m (-334.1%) $362.4m (18.8%) -34.8% (-245.2%)
2019 $1.7b (19.4%) $-52.7m (89.1%) $392.4m (8.3%) -3.2% (90.9%) $-0.13
2020 $1.9b (15.2%) $-256.3m (-386.3%) $490.7m (25.1%) -13.4% (-322.2%) $-0.62 (-376.9%)
2021 $2.2b (12.7%) $335.8m (231.0%) $707.7m (44.2%) 15.6% (216.2%) $0.87 (240.3%)
2022 $2.3b (7.7%) $553.2m (64.7%) $763.5m (7.9%) 23.8% (52.9%) $1.53 (75.9%)
2023 $2.5b (7.6%) $453.6m (-18.0%) $759.4m (-0.5%) 18.1% (-23.8%) $1.33 (-13.1%)
2024 $2.5b (1.9%) $452.3m (-0.3%) $871.6m (14.8%) 17.7% (-2.1%) $1.42 (6.8%)
2025 $2.5b (-1.1%) $508.4m (12.4%) $930.8m (6.8%) 20.2% (13.6%) $1.89 (33.1%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model