Discounted Cash Flow

Deckers Outdoor Corp.

DECK · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2017 $1.8b $5.7m $154.2m 0.3% $0.18
2018 $1.9b (6.3%) $114.4m (1903.4%) $292.5m (89.7%) 6.0% (1784.3%) $3.60 (1900.0%)
2019 $2.0b (6.2%) $264.3m (131.1%) $330.4m (12.9%) 13.1% (117.7%) $8.92 (147.8%)
2020 $2.1b (5.6%) $276.1m (4.5%) $253.9m (-23.2%) 12.9% (-1.0%) $9.73 (9.1%)
2021 $2.5b (19.4%) $382.6m (38.5%) $564.0m (122.2%) 15.0% (16.1%) $13.64 (40.2%)
2022 $3.2b (23.8%) $451.9m (18.1%) $121.3m (-78.5%) 14.3% (-4.5%) $16.43 (20.5%)
2023 $3.6b (15.1%) $516.8m (14.4%) $456.4m (276.1%) 14.2% (-0.7%) $19.50 (18.7%)
2024 $4.3b (18.2%) $759.6m (47.0%) $943.8m (106.8%) 17.7% (24.3%) $29.36 (50.6%)
2025 $5.0b (16.3%) $966.1m (27.2%) $958.4m (1.5%) 19.4% (9.4%) $6.36 (-78.3%)
2026 $5.5b (9.8%) $1.0b (6.0%) $1.1b (14.5%) 18.7% (-3.4%) $7.04 (10.7%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model