Discounted Cash Flow

Diageo Plc. ADR

DEO · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2017 $12.1b $3.6b $3.1b 29.5% $1.06
2018 $12.2b (0.9%) $3.7b (5.1%) $3.0b (-1.4%) 30.7% (4.1%) $1.22 (14.8%)
2019 $12.9b (5.8%) $4.2b (13.2%) $3.2b (5.7%) 32.9% (7.0%) $1.31 (7.4%)
2020 $11.8b (-8.7%) $1.4b (-66.7%) $2.3b (-28.3%) 12.0% (-63.6%) $0.60 (-54.0%)
2021 $12.7b (8.3%) $2.7b (88.8%) $3.6b (57.9%) 20.9% (74.2%) $1.14 (89.4%)
2022 $22.4b (76.3%) $4.4b (64.9%) $3.9b (7.6%) 19.5% (-6.5%) $1.40 (23.2%)
2023 $23.5b (4.8%) $4.7b (8.0%) $3.0b (-23.1%) 20.1% (3.1%) $1.65 (17.6%)
2024 $27.9b (18.6%) $5.5b (15.3%) $4.1b (35.9%) 19.6% (-2.8%) $1.73 (5.0%)
2025 $28.0b (0.3%) $3.5b (-35.2%) $4.2b (3.5%) 12.6% (-35.4%) $1.06 (-38.9%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model