Discounted Cash Flow

Dollar General Corp.

DG · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $20.4b $1.3b 6.1% $3.96
2017 $22.0b (7.9%) $1.3b (0.0%) $1.6b 5.7% (-7.4%) $4.45 (12.4%)
2018 $23.5b (6.8%) $1.5b (23.0%) $1.7b (11.0%) 6.6% (15.2%) $5.64 (26.7%)
2019 $25.6b (9.2%) $1.6b (3.3%) $2.1b (19.6%) 6.2% (-5.4%) $5.99 (6.2%)
2020 $27.8b (8.3%) $1.7b (7.7%) $2.1b (2.3%) 6.2% (-0.5%) $6.68 (11.5%)
2021 $33.7b (21.6%) $2.7b (55.0%) $3.8b (76.6%) 7.9% (27.5%) $10.70 (60.2%)
2022 $34.2b (1.4%) $2.4b (-9.6%) $2.7b (-27.6%) 7.0% (-10.9%) $10.24 (-4.3%)
2023 $37.8b (10.6%) $2.4b (0.7%) $424.0m (-84.4%) 6.4% (-8.9%) $10.73 (4.8%)
2024 $38.7b (2.2%) $1.7b (-31.2%) $691.6m (63.1%) 4.3% (-32.7%) $7.57 (-29.5%)
2025 $40.6b (5.0%) $1.1b (-32.3%) $1.7b (143.8%) 2.8% (-35.5%) $5.12 (-32.4%)
2026 $42.7b (5.2%) $1.5b (34.4%) $2.4b (41.9%) 3.5% (27.8%) $6.87 (34.2%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model