Discounted Cash Flow

Donegal Group Inc.

DGICA · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $688.4m $30.8m $60.0m 4.5%
2017 $739.0m (7.4%) $7.1m (-76.9%) $81.0m (34.9%) 1.0% (-78.5%)
2018 $771.8m (4.4%) $-32.8m (-560.4%) $63.8m (-21.3%) -4.2% (-540.8%)
2019 $812.5m (5.3%) $47.2m (243.9%) $76.4m (19.7%) 5.8% (236.7%)
2020 $777.8m (-4.3%) $52.8m (12.0%) $101.1m (32.4%) 6.8% (17.0%)
2021 $816.5m (5.0%) $25.3m (-52.2%) $76.7m (-24.1%) 3.1% (-54.4%)
2022 $848.2m (3.9%) $-2.0m (-107.8%) $67.1m (-12.5%) -0.2% (-107.5%)
2023 $927.3m (9.3%) $4.4m (325.9%) $28.6m (-57.4%) 0.5% (306.6%)
2024 $989.6m (6.7%) $50.9m (1049.3%) $67.4m (136.0%) 5.1% (977.0%)
2025 $978.0m (-1.2%) $79.3m (56.0%) $70.2m (4.1%) 8.1% (57.8%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model