Discounted Cash Flow

Dollar Tree, Inc.

DLTR · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

DCF estimate unavailable — loss_in_2024

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $15.5b $282.4m $6.5m 1.8% $1.27
2017 $20.7b (33.7%) $896.2m (217.4%) $1.1b (16955.4%) 4.3% (137.4%) $3.80 (199.2%)
2018 $22.2b (7.4%) $1.7b (91.3%) $878.0m (-20.8%) 7.7% (78.2%) $7.24 (90.5%)
2019 $22.8b (2.6%) $-1.6b (-192.8%) $1.7b (96.2%) -7.0% (-190.4%) $-6.69 (-192.4%)
2020 $23.6b (3.5%) $827.0m (152.0%) $1.8b (5.6%) 3.5% (150.3%) $3.49 (152.2%)
2021 $25.5b (8.0%) $1.3b (62.3%) $2.7b (46.9%) 5.3% (50.2%) $5.68 (62.8%)
2022 $26.3b (3.2%) $1.3b (-1.0%) $1.4b (-49.0%) 5.0% (-4.1%) $5.83 (2.6%)
2023 $28.3b (7.6%) $1.6b (21.7%) $1.5b (12.1%) 5.7% (13.0%) $7.24 (24.2%)
2024 $16.8b (-40.8%) $-998.4m (-161.8%) $2.5b (66.6%) -6.0% (-204.4%) $5.76 (-20.4%)
2025 $17.6b (4.8%) $-3.0b (-203.5%) $594.7m (-76.6%) -17.2% (-189.5%) $4.83 (-16.1%)
2026 $19.4b (10.4%) $1.3b (142.3%) $297.6m (-50.0%) 6.6% (138.3%) $5.94 (23.0%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model

loss_in_2024

Once the company meets all DCF eligibility criteria (sufficient history, profitability, growth trends), an estimate will become available automatically. No action is needed.