Discounted Cash Flow

Dorman Products, Inc.

DORM · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $859.6m $106.0m $101.5m 12.3% $3.07
2017 $903.2m (5.1%) $106.6m (0.5%) $69.8m (-31.2%) 11.8% (-4.3%) $3.14 (2.3%)
2018 $973.7m (7.8%) $133.6m (25.3%) $52.0m (-25.5%) 13.7% (16.3%) $4.04 (28.7%)
2019 $991.3m (1.8%) $83.8m (-37.3%) $65.7m (26.4%) 8.4% (-38.4%) $2.57 (-36.4%)
2020 $1.1b (10.2%) $106.9m (27.6%) $136.5m (107.6%) 9.8% (15.7%) $3.31 (28.8%)
2021 $1.3b (23.1%) $131.5m (23.1%) $80.5m (-41.0%) 9.8% (-0.0%) $4.13 (24.8%)
2022 $1.7b (28.9%) $121.5m (-7.6%) $3.8m (-95.3%) 7.0% (-28.3%) $3.87 (-6.3%)
2023 $1.9b (11.3%) $129.3m (6.3%) $164.8m (4230.9%) 6.7% (-4.5%) $4.11 (6.2%)
2024 $2.0b (4.1%) $190.0m (47.0%) $191.6m (16.3%) 9.5% (41.2%) $6.17 (50.1%)
2025 $2.1b (6.0%) $204.2m (7.5%) $75.7m (-60.5%) 9.6% (1.4%) $6.69 (8.4%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model