Discounted Cash Flow

Davita Inc.

DVA · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $10.7b $879.9m $1.1b 8.2% $4.36
2017 $10.9b (1.6%) $663.6m (-24.6%) $1.0b (-11.6%) 6.1% (-25.8%) $3.52 (-19.3%)
2018 $11.4b (4.9%) $159.4m (-76.0%) $784.5m (-21.7%) 1.4% (-77.1%) $0.93 (-73.6%)
2019 $11.4b (-0.1%) $811.0m (408.8%) $1.3b (66.5%) 7.1% (409.5%) $5.29 (468.8%)
2020 $11.6b (1.4%) $773.6m (-4.6%) $1.3b (-0.1%) 6.7% (-5.9%) $6.46 (22.1%)
2021 $11.6b (0.6%) $978.5m (26.5%) $1.3b (-1.2%) 8.4% (25.7%) $9.30 (44.0%)
2022 $11.6b (-0.1%) $560.4m (-42.7%) $961.1m (-25.5%) 4.8% (-42.7%) $6.03 (-35.2%)
2023 $12.1b (4.6%) $691.5m (23.4%) $1.5b (55.1%) 5.7% (18.0%) $7.62 (26.4%)
2024 $12.8b (5.6%) $936.3m (35.4%) $1.5b (-1.6%) 7.3% (28.3%) $11.02 (44.6%)
2025 $13.6b (6.5%) $746.8m (-20.2%) $1.3b (-10.6%) 5.5% (-25.1%) $10.06 (-8.7%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model