Discounted Cash Flow

Ebay Inc.

EBAY · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $9.0b $7.3b $2.2b 80.9% $6.41
2017 $9.6b (6.5%) $-1.0b (-114.0%) $2.5b (12.7%) -10.6% (-113.1%) $-0.95 (-114.8%)
2018 $10.7b (12.3%) $2.5b (349.0%) $2.0b (-19.1%) 23.5% (321.7%) $2.58 (371.6%)
2019 $10.8b (0.5%) $1.8b (-29.4%) $2.6b (27.6%) 16.5% (-29.8%) $2.10 (-18.6%)
2020 $10.3b (-4.9%) $5.7b (217.3%) $1.9b (-24.8%) 55.2% (233.6%) $7.98 (280.0%)
2021 $10.4b (1.5%) $13.6b (140.1%) $2.2b (15.0%) 130.6% (136.7%) $20.87 (161.5%)
2022 $9.8b (-6.0%) $-1.3b (-109.3%) $1.8b (-18.4%) -13.0% (-109.9%) $-2.27 (-110.9%)
2023 $10.1b (3.2%) $2.8b (318.0%) $2.0b (9.1%) 27.4% (311.2%) $5.22 (330.0%)
2024 $10.3b (1.7%) $2.0b (-28.6%) $2.0b (-0.7%) 19.2% (-29.8%) $3.99 (-23.6%)
2025 $11.1b (7.9%) $2.0b (2.8%) $1.4b (-26.7%) 18.3% (-4.7%) $4.43 (11.0%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model