Discounted Cash Flow

Ecopetrol S.A. ADR

EC · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $48.5t $2.4t $14.2t 5.0% $59.50
2017 $56.0t (15.4%) $7.2t (193.3%) $17.0t (19.3%) 12.8% (154.1%) $174.60 (193.4%)
2018 $68.6t (22.6%) $11.4t (58.5%) $22.5t (32.4%) 16.6% (29.3%) $276.80 (58.5%)
2019 $71.5t (4.2%) $13.7t (20.8%) $27.7t (23.3%) 19.2% (15.9%) $334.27 (20.8%)
2020 $50.2t (-29.7%) $1.6t (-88.5%) $9.2t (-66.8%) 3.2% (-83.6%) $38.59 (-88.5%)
2021 $91.9t (82.9%) $15.6t (886.3%) $22.5t (145.3%) 17.0% (439.1%) $380.60 (886.3%)
2022 $159.6t (73.7%) $31.6t (102.0%) $14.4t (-36.3%) 19.8% (16.3%) $768.70 (102.0%)
2023 $143.2t (-10.3%) $21.1t (-33.4%) $-4.3t (-129.9%) 14.7% (-25.7%) $512.20 (-33.4%)
2024 $133.3t (-6.9%) $13.8t (-34.3%) $24.2t (664.2%) 10.4% (-29.4%) $336.60 (-34.3%)
2025 $119.7t (-10.2%) $23.3t (68.2%) $12.5t (-48.3%) 19.4% (87.3%) $255.10 (-24.2%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model