Discounted Cash Flow

Ecolab Inc.

ECL · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $13.2b $1.2b $1.2b 9.3% $4.20
2017 $13.8b (5.2%) $1.5b (22.7%) $1.3b (5.6%) 10.9% (16.6%) $5.21 (24.0%)
2018 $14.7b (6.0%) $1.4b (-5.3%) $1.4b (9.9%) 9.7% (-10.6%) $4.95 (-5.0%)
2019 $14.9b (1.6%) $1.6b (9.1%) $1.6b (13.2%) 10.5% (7.3%) $5.41 (9.3%)
2020 $11.8b (-20.9%) $-1.2b (-177.3%) $1.4b (-15.4%) -10.2% (-197.7%) $-4.20 (-177.6%)
2021 $12.7b (8.0%) $1.1b (193.8%) $1.4b (3.5%) 8.9% (186.8%) $3.95 (194.0%)
2022 $14.2b (11.4%) $1.1b (-3.4%) $1.1b (-24.2%) 7.7% (-13.3%) $3.83 (-3.0%)
2023 $15.3b (8.0%) $1.4b (25.7%) $1.6b (52.2%) 9.0% (16.4%) $4.82 (25.8%)
2024 $15.7b (2.7%) $2.1b (53.9%) $1.8b (11.1%) 13.4% (49.8%) $7.43 (54.1%)
2025 $16.1b (2.2%) $2.1b (-1.7%) $1.9b (4.7%) 12.9% (-3.8%) $7.33 (-1.3%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model