Discounted Cash Flow

Ellington Financial Inc. REIT

EFC · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $74.3m $-16.0m $-16.0m -21.5% $-0.48
2017 $89.6m (20.6%) $34.0m (312.3%) $34.0m (312.3%) 37.9% (276.1%) $1.04 (316.7%)
2018 $131.0m (46.2%) $46.7m (37.4%) $46.7m (37.4%) 35.6% (-6.0%) $1.52 (46.2%)
2019 $159.9m (22.0%) $56.5m (21.0%) $79.2m (69.8%) 35.3% (-0.9%) $1.76 (15.8%)
2020 $173.5m (8.5%) $17.2m (-69.5%) $119.5m (50.8%) 9.9% (-71.9%) $0.39 (-77.8%)
2021 $175.5m (1.1%) $125.3m (626.9%) $51.3m (-57.1%) 71.4% (618.7%) $2.58 (561.5%)
2022 $282.2m (60.8%) $-85.3m (-168.1%) $42.7m (-16.8%) -30.2% (-142.3%) $-1.43 (-155.4%)
2023 $370.2m (31.2%) $60.9m (171.4%) $-241.9m (-666.6%) 16.5% (154.4%) $0.89 (162.2%)
2024 $416.0m (12.4%) $117.8m (93.5%) $-430.5m (-78.0%) 28.3% (72.2%) $1.36 (52.8%)
2025 $494.5m (18.9%) $118.7m (0.8%) $-925.5m (-115.0%) 24.0% (-15.2%) $1.19 (-12.5%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model