Discounted Cash Flow
Erie Indemnity Co.
—
—
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $1.6b | $210.4m | $254.3m | 13.2% | — |
| 2017 | $1.7b (6.0%) | $197.0m (-6.4%) | $197.1m (-22.5%) | 11.6% (-11.6%) | — |
| 2018 | $2.4b (40.8%) | $288.2m (46.3%) | $263.6m (33.7%) | 12.1% (3.9%) | — |
| 2019 | $2.5b (4.0%) | $316.8m (9.9%) | $364.5m (38.3%) | 12.8% (5.7%) | — |
| 2020 | $2.5b (2.4%) | $293.3m (-7.4%) | $342.6m (-6.0%) | 11.6% (-9.6%) | — |
| 2021 | $2.6b (3.8%) | $297.9m (1.6%) | $402.8m (17.6%) | 11.3% (-2.2%) | — |
| 2022 | $2.8b (7.8%) | $298.6m (0.2%) | $298.9m (-25.8%) | 10.5% (-7.0%) | — |
| 2023 | $3.3b (15.1%) | $446.1m (49.4%) | $288.6m (-3.5%) | 13.6% (29.8%) | — |
| 2024 | $3.8b (16.1%) | $600.3m (34.6%) | $486.4m (68.6%) | 15.8% (15.9%) | — |
| 2025 | $4.1b (7.2%) | $559.3m (-6.8%) | $571.0m (17.4%) | 13.8% (-13.1%) | — |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.