Discounted Cash Flow

Essent Group Ltd.

ESNT · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $458.3m $222.6m $270.3m 48.6% $2.45
2017 $576.5m (25.8%) $379.7m (70.6%) $365.8m (35.3%) 65.9% (35.6%) $4.07 (66.1%)
2018 $719.4m (24.8%) $467.4m (23.1%) $621.3m (69.8%) 65.0% (-1.4%) $4.80 (17.9%)
2019 $867.6m (20.6%) $555.7m (18.9%) $586.4m (-5.6%) 64.1% (-1.4%) $5.68 (18.3%)
2020 $955.2m (10.1%) $413.0m (-25.7%) $725.5m (23.7%) 43.2% (-32.5%) $3.89 (-31.5%)
2021 $1.0b (7.7%) $681.8m (65.1%) $706.8m (-2.6%) 66.3% (53.3%) $6.13 (57.6%)
2022 $1.0b (-2.7%) $831.4m (21.9%) $584.8m (-17.3%) 83.1% (25.3%) $7.75 (26.4%)
2023 $1.1b (10.9%) $696.4m (-16.2%) $759.0m (29.8%) 62.8% (-24.5%) $6.56 (-15.4%)
2024 $1.2b (12.0%) $729.4m (4.7%) $854.8m (12.6%) 58.7% (-6.5%) $6.92 (5.5%)
2025 $1.3b (1.5%) $690.0m (-5.4%) $848.7m (-0.7%) 54.7% (-6.8%) $6.97 (0.7%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model