Discounted Cash Flow

Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. REIT

ESRT · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $678.0m $51.5m $20.9m 7.6% $0.38
2017 $712.5m (5.1%) $62.6m (21.7%) $-36.7m (-275.6%) 8.8% (15.9%) $0.40 (5.3%)
2018 $731.5m (2.7%) $65.6m (4.7%) $22.5m (161.4%) 9.0% (2.0%) $0.39 (-2.5%)
2019 $731.3m (-0.0%) $49.4m (-24.6%) $-23.3m (-203.6%) 6.8% (-24.6%) $0.28 (-28.2%)
2020 $609.2m (-16.7%) $-16.7m (-133.8%) $78.2m (435.3%) -2.7% (-140.6%) $-0.10 (-135.7%)
2021 $624.1m (2.4%) $-10.7m (35.9%) $-10.7m (-113.7%) -1.7% (37.4%) $-0.06 (40.0%)
2022 $727.0m (16.5%) $36.4m (440.2%) $125.2m (1269.0%) 5.0% (392.1%) $0.22 (466.7%)
2023 $739.6m (1.7%) $49.0m (34.6%) $63.3m (-49.4%) 6.6% (32.3%) $0.30 (36.4%)
2024 $766.8m (3.7%) $47.4m (-3.3%) $260.9m (311.9%) 6.2% (-6.7%) $0.29 (-3.3%)
2025 $766.8m (0.0%) $43.4m (-8.5%) $249.1m (-4.5%) 5.7% (-8.5%) $0.26 (-10.3%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model