Discounted Cash Flow

Etsy Inc.

ETSY · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $365.0m $-29.9m $10.8m -8.2% $-0.26
2017 $441.2m (20.9%) $81.8m (373.6%) $63.5m (488.9%) 18.5% (326.3%) $0.69 (365.4%)
2018 $603.7m (36.8%) $77.5m (-5.3%) $197.9m (211.8%) 12.8% (-30.8%) $0.64 (-7.2%)
2019 $818.4m (35.6%) $95.9m (23.7%) $199.4m (0.8%) 11.7% (-8.7%) $0.80 (25.0%)
2020 $1.7b (110.9%) $349.2m (264.2%) $677.5m (239.8%) 20.2% (72.7%) $2.88 (260.0%)
2021 $2.3b (35.0%) $493.5m (41.3%) $640.3m (-5.5%) 21.2% (4.7%) $3.88 (34.7%)
2022 $2.6b (10.2%) $-694.3m (-240.7%) $673.4m (5.2%) -27.1% (-227.7%) $-5.48 (-241.2%)
2023 $2.7b (7.1%) $307.6m (144.3%) $692.6m (2.9%) 11.2% (141.4%) $2.51 (145.8%)
2024 $2.8b (2.2%) $303.3m (-1.4%) $738.3m (6.6%) 10.8% (-3.5%) $2.64 (5.2%)
2025 $2.9b (2.7%) $163.0m (-46.3%) $678.0m (-8.2%) 5.7% (-47.7%) $1.59 (-39.8%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model