Discounted Cash Flow

Exelixis, Inc.

EXEL · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $191.5m $-70.2m $204.6m -36.7% $-0.28
2017 $452.5m (136.3%) $154.2m (319.6%) $144.5m (-29.4%) 34.1% (192.9%) $0.52 (285.7%)
2018 $853.8m (88.7%) $690.1m (347.4%) $382.4m (164.7%) 80.8% (137.1%) $2.32 (346.2%)
2019 $967.8m (13.3%) $321.0m (-53.5%) $514.1m (34.4%) 33.2% (-59.0%) $1.06 (-54.3%)
2020 $967.8m (0.0%) $321.0m (0.0%) $526.9m (2.5%) 33.2% (0.0%) $1.06 (0.0%)
2021 $1.4b (48.3%) $231.1m (-28.0%) $336.6m (-36.1%) 16.1% (-51.5%) $0.73 (-31.1%)
2022 $1.6b (12.3%) $182.3m (-21.1%) $334.9m (-0.5%) 11.3% (-29.7%) $0.57 (-21.9%)
2023 $1.8b (13.6%) $207.8m (14.0%) $292.9m (-12.6%) 11.4% (0.3%) $0.65 (14.0%)
2024 $2.2b (18.5%) $521.3m (150.9%) $671.5m (129.3%) 24.0% (111.7%) $1.80 (176.9%)
2025 $2.3b (7.0%) $782.6m (50.1%) $875.8m (30.4%) 33.7% (40.3%) $2.88 (60.0%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model