Discounted Cash Flow

Expedia Group, Inc.

EXPE · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $8.8b $281.8m $815.0m 3.2% $1.87
2017 $10.1b (14.7%) $378.0m (34.1%) $1.1b (33.6%) 3.8% (17.0%) $2.49 (33.2%)
2018 $11.2b (11.6%) $406.0m (7.4%) $1.1b (0.8%) 3.6% (-3.7%) $2.71 (8.8%)
2019 $12.1b (7.5%) $565.0m (39.2%) $1.6b (46.5%) 4.7% (29.4%) $3.84 (41.7%)
2020 $5.2b (-56.9%) $-2.6b (-562.3%) $-4.6b (-388.2%) -50.2% (-1173.0%) $-19.00 (-594.8%)
2021 $8.6b (65.4%) $12.0m (100.5%) $3.1b (166.4%) 0.1% (100.3%) $-1.80 (90.5%)
2022 $11.7b (35.7%) $352.0m (2833.3%) $2.8b (-9.7%) 3.0% (2061.7%) $2.24 (224.4%)
2023 $12.8b (10.0%) $797.0m (126.4%) $1.8b (-33.6%) 6.2% (105.8%) $5.50 (145.5%)
2024 $13.7b (6.6%) $1.2b (54.8%) $2.3b (26.3%) 9.0% (45.2%) $9.39 (70.7%)
2025 $14.7b (7.6%) $1.3b (4.9%) $3.1b (33.5%) 8.8% (-2.6%) $10.32 (9.9%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model